Learning Outlook: Optimism Reigns, Pessimism Persists

<p>Things are getting better. Wait a minute, maybe they&rsquo;re not.<br /><br />That&rsquo;s one of the potential conclusions from a recent survey on the 2010 outlook for learning and development.<br /><br />More than half (59 percent) of learning executives surveyed indicated they are more optimistic about the outlook for employee development than they were at this time last year, according to a recently released report analyzing survey data from the <em>Chief Learning Officer</em> Business Intelligence Board (BIB).<br /><br />In September, the editors surveyed the BIB, a group of 1,179 professionals in the learning and development industry, to determine their outlook for learning in 2010. The full analysis of the results was included in &ldquo;Focus on Training Outlook,&rdquo; a <em>Chief Learning Officer</em> report released Monday on HumanCapitalMedia.com. <br /><br />Economic indicators from late 2009, including gradually declining new unemployment claims; stable corporate earnings; and U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter 2009, suggest the economy is improving. This feeling is echoed by the CLO BIB members.<br /><br />Their reported optimism is due in part to the belief that the worst of L&D budget reductions are behind, learning activities are closely aligned with business strategies, necessary staff reductions have already been made, and L&D is one of the best ways to develop and engage key employees to remain competitive. <br /><br />While optimism rules, pessimism persists among a significant portion of respondents. Forty percent indicated their outlook for this year is either the same or less optimistic than their 2009 outlook. According to the data, survey respondents in government and manufacturing segments were least optimistic: 59 percent from government indicated their outlook is the same or less optimistic than 2009, and 67 percent in manufacturing felt this way. Survey respondents from the consulting and business services segments are most optimistic (75 percent).<br /><br />The survey also asked respondents to indicate what topics will have the most and least positive impact this year. Instructor-led training remained strong (89 percent indicated it would have a positive or significant positive impact), followed by informal learning and leadership development (83 percent and 82 percent, respectively). Outsourcing is predicted to be the least impactful in 2010 (11 percent).<br /><br />Informal learning, in particular, continued its rise in prominence as an important L&D topic. The largest number of respondents (12 percent) indicated that informal learning should receive more attention this year, followed by social networking (9 percent). Interestingly, survey respondents indicated that social networking is also the most overhyped learning topic and should be dropped entirely (12 percent). This apparent conflict may reflect ongoing confusion about the definition of networking and the potential benefits of integrating tools into the enterprise.<br /><br />An overwhelming percentage of organizations believe their training will be more aligned with company business objectives in 2010, representing 90 percent of enterprises.<br /><br />Organizations learned many lessons from 2009, and learning leaders by and large remain cautiously optimistic about 2010, except when they&rsquo;re not. </p>